by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2014 07:51:00 PM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for August since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

Note: From the Port of Long Beach: Shipping surge cools after early ‘peak season’

Container cargo shipments declined by 9.1 percent in August at the Port of Long Beach, reflecting both early shipping by importers this year and the comparison to an August last year that was the Port’s busiest month since 2007. ... The downturn last month followed a surge in Long Beach from April through June 2014, when retailers shipped their products early ahead of the expiration of the longshore contract at the end of June.

Last year’s August was very busy and started off the typical August through October “peak season.” That peak season may have occurred earlier this year.

The contract was settled fairly quickly in July, and I expect traffic to increase over the next few months.

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was unchanged compared to the rolling 12 months ending in July.   Outbound traffic was down 0.5% compared to 12 months ending in July.

Inbound traffic has been increasing, and outbound traffic has been moving up a little recently after moving sideways.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March (depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year).

Imports were up slightly year-over-year in August, exports were down 6% year-over-year.

Overall traffic was a little soft in August, possibly due to concerns about a longer strike.