by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2014 05:04:00 PM

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in August to 1.98% from 2.02% in July. Freddie's rate is down from 2.64% in August 2013, and this is the lowest level since January 2009. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". 

Note: Fannie Mae reported earlier this week that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in August to 1.99% from 2.00% in July.

Click on graph for larger image

Although this indicates progress, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%. 

The serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.66 percentage points over the last year - and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until some time in 2016.

Note: Very few seriously delinquent loans cure with the owner making up back payments - most of the reduction in the serious delinquency rate is from foreclosures, short sales, and modifications. 

So even though distressed sales are declining, I expect an above normal level of Fannie and Freddie distressed even in 2016 (mostly in judicial foreclosure states).