by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2014 08:15:00 PM

From the WSJ: What Falling Exports Mean for U.S. Economic Growth

In response to Tuesday’s trade report (in addition to weak construction and factory orders data), economists are reducing the estimates for third-quarter real GDP growth. Economists at BNP Paribas now track third-quarter GDP at 2.8% and J.P. Morgan forecasters think the rate will be revised to 2.9%, while the econ shops at Goldman Sachs, Royal Bank of Scotland and Capital Economics think the rate will fall to about 3%.

The BEA will release the 2nd revision of GDP on November 25th, but so far it looks like GDP will be revised down.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 212,000 payroll jobs added in October, down from 213,000 in September.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 58.0, down from 58.6 in September. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion.