by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2014 07:56:00 PM

First, from Tim Duy: Fed Watch: Looking Backward to See the Future

[In 20004] Patient" lasted for two meetings before being replaced by "measured." This is fairly consistent with my expectations. My baseline scenario is that the Fed drops "considerable" entirely in January, retains "patient" in March, drops "patient" in April, and raise rates in June.
...
Bottom Line: Assuming the data holds, maybe history will repeat itself.

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.9% increase in durable goods orders.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2014 (third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 4.3% annualized in Q3, revised up from the second estimate of 3.9%.

• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for October 2014. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase.

• At 9:55 AM, Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for December). The consensus is for a reading of 93.0, down from the preliminary reading of 93.8, and up from the November reading of 88.8.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 460 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in November from 458 thousand in October.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.