by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2015 04:26:00 PM

A couple of major changes: Sales were up year-over-year and inventory down slightly year-over-year in Phoenix!

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in December were up 9.2% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down about 8% to 29.2% of total sales. Non-cash sales were up 18.2% year-over-year.

3) Active inventory is now down 1.8% year-over-year - and at about the same level as in December 2011 (in 2011 house prices bottomed in Phoenix).

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow.

According to Case-Shiller, Phoenix house prices bottomed in August 2011 (mostly flat for all of 2011), and then increased 23% in 2012, and another 15% in 2013.  Those large increases were probably due to investor buying, low inventory and some bounce back from the steep price declines in 2007 through 2010.  Now, with more inventory, price increases have flattened out in 2014.

As an example, the Phoenix Case-Shiller index through October shows prices up about 1% in 2014, and the Zillow index shows Phoenix prices up 2.5% over the last year.

December Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Dec-08	5,524	---	1,665	30.1%	53,7921	---
Dec-09	7,661	38.7%	3,008	39.3%	39,709	-26.2%1
Dec-10	8,401	9.7%	3,939	46.9%	42,463	6.9%
Dec-11	7,843	-6.6%	3,635	46.3%	24,712	-41.8%
Dec-12	7,071	-9.8%	3,211	45.4%	21,095	-14.6%
Dec-13	5,930	-16.1%	2,053	34.6%	25,511	20.9%
Dec-14	6,475	9.2%	1,893	29.2%	25,052	-1.8%
1 December 2008 probably includes pending listings