by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2015 04:08:00 PM

Here is an indicator that I follow on trucking, from the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 1.1% in May

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.1% in May, following a revised loss of 1.4% during April. In May, the index equaled 132.1 (2000=100). The all-time high is 135.8, reached in January 2015.

Compared with May 2014, the SA index increased just 1.8%, which was well below the 2.7% gain in April and the smallest year-over-year gain since February 2013 (-4.3%). ...

“The good news is that truck tonnage increased in May,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “But tonnage is certainly not strong at the moment as factory output is soft and there is an inventory reduction occurring throughout the supply chain.”

Costello noted that truck tonnage is off 2.7% from the high in January.

“I believe the inventory correction should end this summer and truck freight, helped by better personal consumption, will accelerate,” he said, “which is good because I think it is unlikely factory output will boost truck tonnage much until later this year or next year.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index.

The index is now up only 1.8% year-over-year.