by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2015 05:51:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.

For the seventh consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in June were up 20.5% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.0% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 16.4% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

Now, with falling inventory, prices might increase a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 1.8% through April (increasing faster than in 2014).

June Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
June 2008	5,748	---	1,093	19.0%	53,8262	---
June 2009	9,325	62.2%	3,443	36.9%	38,358	---2
June 2010	9,278	-0.5%	3,498	37.7%	41,869	9.2%
June 2011	11,134	20.0%	5,001	44.9%	29,203	-30.3%
June 2012	9,133	-18.0%	4,272	46.8%	19,857	-32.0%
June 2013	8,150	-10.8%	3,055	37.5%	19,541	-1.6%
June 2014	7,239	-11.2%	1,854	25.6%	27,954	43.1%
June 2015	8,273	20.5%	2,005	23.0%	23,377	-16.4%
1 June 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more 2 June 2008 Inventory includes pending