by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2015 01:57:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.

For the ninth consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in August were up 9.2% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 22.6% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 13.7% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

Now, with falling inventory, prices are increasing a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 2.5% through June (prices increased more in 6 months in 2015, than all of 2014).

August Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Aug-08	5,660	---	1,004	17.7%	53,5691	---
Aug-09	8,008	41.5%	2,849	35.6%	38,085	-28.9%
Aug-10	7,358	-8.1%	3,129	42.5%	44,307	16.3%
Aug-11	8,712	18.4%	3,953	45.4%	26,983	-39.1%
Aug-12	7,574	-13.1%	3,382	44.7%	20,934	-22.4%
Aug-13	7,055	-6.9%	2,409	34.1%	21,444	2.4%
Aug-14	6,431	-8.8%	1,621	25.2%	26,138	21.9%
Aug-15	7,023	9.2%	1,588	22.6%	22,554	-13.7%
1 August 2008 probably includes pending listings