by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2015 08:50:00 PM

From Tim Duy at Bloomberg: Why the Fed Is Likely to Stand Pat This Week

Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve is looking for a time with minimal downside risks to raise interest rates. The wavering global economy is likely creating enough downside risk to defer that first hike to a later meeting. But the Fed still wants to begin normalizing policy, and it will signal that it remains committed to a rate hike this year. Regardless of the global situation and the inflation picture, I suspect it will feel increasingly compelled to do just that as the unemployment rate drifts below 5 percent.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, the Consumer Price Index for August from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

• At 10:00 AM, the September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 61, unchanged from August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.