by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2015 07:04:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Up Sharply in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 25.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 2, 2015.
...
The Refinance Index increased 24 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 27 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 27 percent compared with the previous week and was 49 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“The number of applications for purchase and refinance mortgages soared last week due both to renewed rate volatility and as many applications were filed prior to the TILA-RESPA regulatory change. The average loan size of applications in the weekly survey increased by 6.9 percent, driven by a 12.1 percent increase in the average size of refinances,” said Lynn Fisher, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to 3.99 percent, the lowest level since May 2015, from 4.08 percent, with points increasing to 0.46 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index.

Refinance activity remains low.

2014 was the lowest year for refinance activity since year 2000, and refinance activity will probably stay low for the rest of 2015 (after the increase earlier this year).


The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  

According to the MBA, the unadjusted purchase index is 49% higher than a year ago.

This surge was partially related to applications being filed before the TILA-RESPA regulatory change, so I expect applications to decline significant in the next survey.