by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2015 02:26:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

For the twelfth consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in November were up 6.5% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were up slightly at 29.1% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 8.8% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

Now, with falling inventory, prices are increasing a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 4.0% through September (about double the pace for 2014).

November Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Nov-08	4,417	---	1,217	27.6%	56,2271	---
Nov-09	7,494	69.7%	2,572	34.3%	40,372	-28.2%
Nov-10	6,789	-9.4%	2,966	43.7%	45,353	12.3%
Nov-11	7,147	5.3%	3,245	45.4%	26,798	-40.9%
Nov-12	6,810	-4.7%	2,945	43.2%	23,232	-13.3%
Nov-13	5,181	-23.9%	1,761	34.0%	26,762	15.2%
Nov-14	4,986	-3.8%	1,396	28.0%	27,426	2.5%
Nov-15	5,308	6.5%	1,542	29.1%	25,022	-8.8%
1 November 2008 probably includes pending listings