by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2016 11:47:00 AM
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Key Measures Show Inflation close to 2% in December
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.8% annualized rate) in December. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.1% (0.8% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.Note: The Cleveland Fed has the median CPI details for December here. Motor fuel was down 38% annualized in December.
Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers fell 0.1% (-1.3% annualized rate) in December. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.1% (1.5% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.4%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.8%, and the CPI less food and energy also rose 2.1%. Core PCE is for November and increased 1.3% year-over-year.
On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 1.8% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 0.8% annualized, and core CPI was at 1.5% annualized.
On a year-over-year basis, two of these measures suggest inflation remains below the Fed's target of 2%, and two measures, core CPI and median CPI, are above 2%.
Using these measures, inflation has been mostly moving up, and three of the measures are close to the Fed's target (Core PCE is still way below).