by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2016 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over Two Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 27 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 1, 2016. The most recent week’s results include an adjustment to account for the New Year’s Day holiday, while the previous week’s results were adjusted for the Christmas holiday.
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The Refinance Index decreased 37 percent from two weeks ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 15 percent from two weeks earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 40 percent compared with two weeks ago and was 22 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to 4.20 percent, its highest level since July 2015, from 4.19 percent, with points decreasing to 0.42 from 0.49 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index.

Refinance activity remains low.

Refinance activity will probably stay low in 2016.


The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  

According to the MBA, the unadjusted purchase index is 22% higher than a year ago.