by Calculated Risk on 1/19/2016 08:04:00 PM

An update on the rain in California ... from the LA Times: What happened to El Niño? Be patient, L.A., it'll come, expert says

[M]uch of the rain Northern California has received in recent months is not significantly related to El Niño. Most of that precipitation — including this week's storms hitting San Francisco — is coming from the typical winter weather pattern in California: cold storms from the northern Pacific Ocean, coming northwest of the state.
...
Experts say it's possible that the classic El Niño-influenced pattern could emerge by late January or early February. That would put it more in line with how the most punishing series of storms arrived in February 1998 and March of 1983.

"As we look back, the big show is usually in February, March — even into April and May," [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory climatologist] Patzert said. "So, in many ways, this is on schedule."

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, the Consumer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for no change in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for December. The consensus is for 1.198 million SAAR, up from 1.173 million in November.

• During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for December (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).