by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2016 11:21:00 AM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up year-over-year in March, following fifteen consecutive months of year-over-year declines in Phoenix.  This could be a significant change.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in March were up 8.5% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 24.6% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 3.6% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.  Inventory is something to watch in 2016!

March Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Mar-08	4,303	---	822	19.1%	57,0811	---
Mar-09	7,636	77.5%	2,994	39.2%	49,743	-12.9%
Mar-10	8,969	17.5%	3,745	41.8%	42,755	-14.0%
Mar-11	9,927	10.7%	4,946	49.8%	37,632	-12.0%
Mar-12	8,868	-10.7%	4,222	47.6%	21,863	-41.9%
Mar-13	8,146	-8.1%	3,384	41.5%	20,729	-5.2%
Mar-14	6,708	-17.7%	2,222	33.1%	30,167	45.5%
Mar-15	7,884	17.5%	2,172	27.5%	26,623	-11.7%
Mar-16	8,555	8.5%	2,107	24.6%	27,580	3.6%
1 March 2008 probably included pending listings