by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2016 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Surge in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 14.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 1, 2016.

... The Refinance Index increased 21 percent from the previous week to the highest level since January 2015. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Interest rates continued to drop last week as markets assessed the impact of Brexit, downgrading the likelihood of additional rate hikes by the Fed, and mortgage rates for 30-year conforming loans dropped to their lowest level in over 3 years,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Chief Economist. “In response, refinance application volume jumped almost 21 percent last week to its highest level since January 2015.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to its lowest level since May 2013, 3.66 percent, from 3.75 percent, with points decreasing to 0.32 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Refinance activity has increased a little this year since rates have declined.

With rates falling again this week (below the MBA reported rates for the week ending July 1st), there will probably be a further increase in refinance activity.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

The purchase index is "23 percent higher than the same week one year ago".