by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2016 08:09:00 AM

Happy 4th of July!

The key report this week is the June employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the June ISM non-manufacturing index, and the May trade deficit.

Also the quarterly Reis surveys for office, apartment and malls will be released this week.

----- Monday, July 4th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day.

----- Tuesday, July 5th -----
Early: Reis Q2 2016 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for May. The consensus is a 1.0% decrease in orders.

----- Wednesday, July 6th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Early: Reis Q2 2016 Apartment Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through April. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $40.0 billion in May from $37.4 billion in April.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for index to increase to 53.3 from 52.9 in May.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of June 14-15, 2016

----- Thursday, July 7th -----
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in June, down from 173,000 added in May.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 269 thousand initial claims, up from 268 thousand the previous week.

Early: Reis Q2 2016 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

----- Friday, July 8th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for June. The consensus is for an increase of 180,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June, up from the 38,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in May.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.8%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In May, the year-over-year change was 2.39 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.


3:00 PM: Consumer credit from the Federal Reserve.  The consensus is for a $16.0 billion increase in credit.