by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2016 04:44:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was down 2% year-over-year in October.  This followed eight consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in November were up 30.2% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.4% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 1.8% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

This slight decrease in inventory followed eight monthly YoY increases.  This might be a change in trend - something to watch.

November Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Nov-08	4,417	---	1,217	27.6%	56,2271	---
Nov-09	7,494	69.7%	2,572	34.3%	40,372	-28.2%
Nov-10	6,789	-9.4%	2,966	43.7%	45,353	12.3%
Nov-11	7,147	5.3%	3,245	45.4%	26,798	-40.9%
Nov-12	6,810	-4.7%	2,945	43.2%	23,232	-13.3%
Nov-13	5,181	-23.9%	1,761	34.0%	26,762	15.2%
Nov-14	4,986	-3.8%	1,396	28.0%	27,426	2.5%
Nov-15	5,308	6.5%	1,542	29.1%	25,022	-8.8%
Nov-16	6,911	30.2%	1,618	23.4%	24,582	-1.8%
1 November 2008 probably includes pending listings