Goldman Sachs FOMC Preview

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economists Zach Pandl and Jan Hatzius: FOMC Preview: Holding Pattern

The FOMC looks very likely to keep policy unchanged next week, and should make only modest revisions to the post-meeting statement.

We expect constructive comments on economic activity, assuming GDP growth for Q4 (reported this Friday) is in line with or better than our +2.2% forecast. The committee will probably keep its description of inflation trends roughly unchanged, but it may acknowledge that headline PCE inflation should reach 2% relatively soon (instead of “over the medium term”).

We look for the balance of risk assessment and the characterization of current policy (“accommodative”) to remain unchanged. The statement will likely leave out any explicit mention of fiscal policy for the time being.

CR note: The FOMC meeting is scheduled next week for Tuesday, January 31st and Wednesday, February 1st. The consensus is there will be no change in policy at this meeting.