by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2017 02:31:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble and bust, followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in December were up 5.9% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.1% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 2.9% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

This is the second consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory following eight months with YoY increases.  This might be a change in trend - something to watch.

December Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Dec-08	5,524	---	1,665	30.1%	53,7921	---
Dec-09	7,661	38.7%	3,008	39.3%	39,709	-26.2%1
Dec-10	8,401	9.7%	3,939	46.9%	42,463	6.9%
Dec-11	7,843	-6.6%	3,635	46.3%	24,712	-41.8%
Dec-12	7,071	-9.8%	3,211	45.4%	21,095	-14.6%
Dec-13	5,930	-16.1%	2,053	34.6%	25,511	20.9%
Dec-14	6,475	9.2%	1,893	29.2%	25,052	-1.8%
Dec-15	6,756	4.3%	1,617	23.9%	23,053	-8.0%
Dec-16	7,154	5.9%	1,655	23.1%	22,388	-2.9%
1 December 2008 probably includes pending listings