by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2017 06:59:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble and bust, followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in February were up 12.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 25.9% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 10.8% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the fourth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory following eight months with YoY increases.  This is a key change in trend - something to watch.

February Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Feb-2008	3,445	---	650	18.9%	57,3051	---
Feb-2009	5,477	59.0%	2,188	39.9%	52,013	-9.2%
Feb-2010	6,595	20.4%	2,997	45.4%	42,388	-18.5%
Feb-2011	7,171	8.7%	3,776	52.7%	40,666	-4.1%
Feb-2012	7,249	1.1%	3,616	49.9%	23,736	-41.6%
Feb-2013	6,618	-8.7%	3,053	46.1%	21,718	-8.5%
Feb-2014	5,476	-17.3%	1,939	35.4%	29,899	37.7%
Feb-2015	5,970	9.0%	1,784	29.9%	27,382	-8.4%
Feb-2016	5,816	-2.6%	1,688	29.0%	27,202	-0.7%
Feb-2017	6,547	12.6%	1,696	25.9%	24,275	-10.8%
1 February 2008 probably included pending listings