Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly available state and local realtor/MLS reports released through today, I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.74 million in March, up 4.7% from February’s preliminary pace and up 6.5% from last March’s seasonally adjusted pace. Local realtor/MLS data also suggest that active listings increased by more this March than last March, and my “best guess” is that the NAR’s March inventory estimate will be 1.86 million, up 6.3% from February’s preliminary estimate and down 5.1% from last March’s estimate. Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the NAR’s estimate for the median existing SF home sales price in March will be about 7.5% higher than last March’s estimate.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release existing home sales for March on Friday. The consensus forecast is for sales of 5.61 million SAAR (take the over this month!).