by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2017 01:02:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble and bust, followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in March were up 8.8% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.9% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 9.8% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the fifth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory following eight months with YoY increases. 

March Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Mar-08	4,303	---	822	19.1%	57,0811	---
Mar-09	7,636	77.5%	2,994	39.2%	49,743	-12.9%
Mar-10	8,969	17.5%	3,745	41.8%	42,755	-14.0%
Mar-11	9,927	10.7%	4,946	49.8%	37,632	-12.0%
Mar-12	8,868	-10.7%	4,222	47.6%	21,863	-41.9%
Mar-13	8,146	-8.1%	3,384	41.5%	20,729	-5.2%
Mar-14	6,708	-17.7%	2,222	33.1%	30,167	45.5%
Mar-15	7,884	17.5%	2,172	27.5%	26,623	-11.7%
Mar-16	8,555	8.5%	2,107	24.6%	27,580	3.6%
Mar-17	9,304	8.8%	2,226	23.9%	24,871	-9.8%
1 March 2008 probably included pending listings