by Calculated Risk on 5/08/2017 01:21:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble and bust, followed by strong investor buying.

note: Updated

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in April were up 4.5% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 22.5% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 11.0% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the sixth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory following eight months with YoY increases.

April Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash	Percent Cash	Inventory	YoY Change
Apr-08	4,8751	---	986	20.2%	55,7261	---
Apr-09	8,564	75.7%	3,464	40.4%	44,165	-20.7%
Apr-10	9,261	8.1%	3,641	39.3%	41,756	-5.5%
Apr-11	9,328	0.7%	4,489	48.1%	34,515	-17.3%
Apr-12	8,438	-9.5%	4,013	47.6%	21,125	-38.8%
Apr-13	8,744	3.6%	3,670	42.0%	20,083	-4.9%
Apr-14	7,656	-12.4%	2,469	32.2%	29,889	48.8%
Apr-15	8,368	9.3%	2,120	25.3%	25,950	-13.2%
Apr-16	8,437	0.8%	2,008	23.8%	27,232	4.9%
Apr-17	8,819	4.5%	1,980	22.5%	24,230	-11.0%
1 April 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more