by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2017 05:29:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble and bust, followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in May were up 9.3% year-over-year.

2) Active inventory is now down 9.5% year-over-year. 

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the seventh consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and prices are up 1.7% through March (7.1% annual rate).

May Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
May-08	5,6371	---	1,062	18.8%	54,1611	---
May-09	9,284	64.7%	3,592	38.7%	39,902	-26.3%
May-10	9,067	-2.3%	3,341	36.8%	41,326	3.6%
May-11	9,811	8.2%	4,523	46.1%	31,661	-23.4%
May-12	8,445	13.5%	3,907	46.3%	20,162	-36.3%
May-13	9,440	11.8%	3,669	38.9%	19,734	-2.1%
May-14	7,442	-21.2%	2,193	29.5%	29,091	47.4%
May-15	8,293	11.4%	1,988	24.0%	24,616	-15.4%
May-16	8,820	6.4%	1,931	21.9%	25,980	5.5%
May-17	9,641	9.3%	NA	NA	23,520	-9.5%
1 May 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more