by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2017 06:27:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in June were up 6.5% year-over-year.

2) Active inventory is now down 10.2% year-over-year. 

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the eighth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and prices are rising a little faster this year (2.2% through April or 6.7% annual rate).

June Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
June 2008	5,748	---	1,093	19.0%	53,8262	---
June 2009	9,325	62.2%	3,443	36.9%	38,358	---2
June 2010	9,278	-0.5%	3,498	37.7%	41,869	9.2%
June 2011	11,134	20.0%	5,001	44.9%	29,203	-30.3%
June 2012	9,133	-18.0%	4,272	46.8%	19,857	-32.0%
June 2013	8,150	-10.8%	3,055	37.5%	19,541	-1.6%
June 2014	7,239	-11.2%	1,854	25.6%	27,954	43.1%
June 2015	8,273	20.5%	2,005	23.0%	23,377	-16.4%
June 2016	8,986	8.6%	1,875	20.9%	24,898	6.5%
June 2017	9,571	6.5%	1,930	20.2%	22,358	-10.2%
1 June 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more 2 June 2008 Inventory includes pending