by Calculated Risk on 7/01/2017 08:12:00 AM

The key report this week is the June employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the June ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, June auto sales, and the May Trade Deficit.

----- Monday, July 3rd -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 55.1, up from 54.9 in May.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 54.9% in May. The employment index was at 53.5%, and the new orders index was at 59.5%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for June. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.6 million SAAR in June, mostly unchanged from 16.6 million in  May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the May sales rate.

----- Tuesday, July 4th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day.

----- Wednesday, July 5th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of June 13 - 14, 2017

----- Thursday, July 6th -----
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 178,000 payroll jobs added in June, down from 253,000 added in May.

8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 244 thousand initial claims, unchanged from 244 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through March. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $46.2 billion in May from $47.6 billion in April.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for index to decrease to 56.5 from 56.9 in May.

----- Friday, July 7th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for June. The consensus is for an increase of 170,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June, up from the 138,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in May.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In May, the year-over-year change was 2.23 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.