by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2017 11:11:00 AM
Friday, October 13, 2017
Key Measures Show Inflation mostly below 2% in September
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.5% annualized rate) in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.8% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for September here. Motor fuel increased 335% in September, annualized.
Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.5% (6.8% annualized rate) in September. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.1% (1.5% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.2%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.8%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.7%. Core PCE is for August and increased 1.3% year-over-year.
On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 2.5% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 1.8% annualized, and core CPI was at 1.5% annualized.
Using these measures, inflation was soft year-over-year again in September (although inflation picked up month-to-month, with gasoline prices up sharply due to Hurricane Harvey). Overall these measures are mostly below the Fed's 2% target (Median CPI is slightly above).