by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2017 03:01:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in October were up 4.3% year-over-year (including homes, condos and manufactured homes).

2) Active inventory is now down 10.1% year-over-year. 

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the twelfth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and prices are rising a little faster this year (3.7% through August or 5.7% annual rate).

October Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Oct-08	5,384	---	1,348	25.0%	55,7031	---
Oct-09	8,121	50.8%	2,688	33.1%	39,312	-29.4%
Oct-10	6,591	-18.8%	2,800	42.5%	45,252	15.1%
Oct-11	7,561	14.7%	3,336	44.1%	27,266	-39.7%
Oct-12	7,020	-7.2%	3,081	43.9%	22,702	-16.7%
Oct-13	6,038	-14.0%	1,910	31.6%	26,267	15.7%
Oct-14	6,186	2.5%	1,712	27.7%	27,760	5.7%
Oct-15	6,308	2.0%	1,570	24.9%	24,702	-11.0%
Oct-16	7,102	12.6%	1,494	21.0%	24,950	1.0%
Oct-17	7,408	4.3%	1,578	21.3%	22,427	-10.1%
1 October 2008 probably includes pending listings