by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2017 08:09:00 AM

Happy New Year!

The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the December ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, the November trade deficit, and December auto sales.

Also the Q4 quarterly Reis surveys for office and malls will be released this week.

----- Monday, Jan 1st -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the New Year's Day Holiday.

----- Tuesday, Jan 2nd -----
10:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for November.

----- Wednesday, Jan 3rd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Early: Reis Q4 2017 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 58.0, down from 58.2 in November.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in October. The PMI was at 58.2% in November, the employment index was at 59.7%, and the new orders index was at 64.0%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for November. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.5 million SAAR in December, up from 17.4 million in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the November sales rate.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of December 12 - 13, 2017

----- Thursday, Jan 4th -----
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 185,000 payroll jobs added in December, down from 190,000 added in November.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, down from 245 thousand the previous week.

Early: Reis Q4 2017 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

----- Friday, Jan 5th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for December. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in December, down from the 228,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in November.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In November the year-over-year change was 2.07 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through October. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $48.3 billion in November from $48.7 billion in October.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for index to increase to 57.6 from 57.4 in November.