by Calculated Risk on 2/18/2018 10:04:00 AM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in January were up 2.8% year-over-year (including homes, condos and manufactured homes).

2) Active inventory is now down 10.7% year-over-year. 

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.  With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the fifteenth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and prices rose a little faster in 2017 compared to 2016 (5.0% through November or 5.5% annual rate).

January Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Jan-08	2,907	---	553	19.0%	56,8741	---
Jan-09	4,736	62.9%	1,625	34.3%	53,581	-5.8%
Jan-10	5,789	22.2%	2,475	42.8%	41,506	-22.5%
Jan-11	6,539	13.0%	3,263	49.9%	42,881	3.3%
Jan-12	6,455	-1.3%	3,198	49.5%	25,025	-41.6%
Jan-13	5,790	-10.3%	2,555	44.1%	22,090	-11.7%
Jan-14	4,799	-17.1%	1,740	36.3%	28,630	29.6%
Jan-15	4,785	-0.3%	1,529	32.0%	27,238	-4.9%
Jan-16	5,199	8.7%	1,425	27.4%	25,736	-5.5%
Jan-17	6,028	15.9%	1,631	27.1%	23,762	-7.7%
Jan-18	6,197	2.8%	1,668	26.9%	21,226	-10.7%
1 January 2008 probably included pending listings