by Calculated Risk on 6/07/2018 04:01:00 PM

Note: This index is possibly a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing.

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Inches Up in May

The Dodge Momentum Index eked out a small gain in May, moving 1.8% higher to 167.8 (2000=100) from the revised April reading of 164.9. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. May’s gain was the result of a 4.7% increase by the commercial component of the Momentum Index, while the institutional component fell 2.4%. The Momentum Index has posted solid gains through the first five months of 2018, rising 19% from the same period of 2017 and reaching a level not seen since mid-2008. However, the upturn to this point shows that the current expansion has been more drawn out than what occurred during the previous cyclical expansion. It has been nearly seven years since the Momentum Index hit bottom in July 2011, but it has yet to eclipse its previous peak set in December 2007. At the same time, the recent gains for the Momentum Index suggest that construction spending for nonresidential buildings should remain healthy through the rest of 2018.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 167.8 in May, up from 164.9 in April.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This suggests further growth in 2018 and into 2019.