by Calculated Risk on 7/19/2018 10:12:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: July 2018 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Regional manufacturing activity continued to expand in July, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. All the broad indicators remained positive, with the general activity and new orders indexes improving this month. The survey’s price indexes suggest widespread increases for purchased inputs, and more firms reported price increases for their own manufactured goods. Expectations for the next six months continued to moderate but remain positive overall.

The diffusion index for current general activity increased 6 points this month. Over 44 percent of the manufacturers reported increases in overall activity this month, while 19 percent reported decreases. The new orders index rebounded 14 points after falling 23 points in June. ... The firms continued to report overall higher employment, but increases were not as widespread this month. Over 24 percent of the responding firms reported increases in employment this month, down from 34 percent last month. The current employment index fell 14 points to 16.8. The current average workweek index declined 11 points.
emphasis added

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through July), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through June) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through June (right axis).

This suggests the ISM manufacturing index will show solid expansion again in July.