Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer.
As an example, for last month, May 2018, the consensus was for sales of 5.56 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Lawler estimated 5.47 million, and the NAR reported 5.43 million (the consensus missed by 130 thousand compared to 40 thousand for Lawler).
NOTE: There have been times when Lawler "missed", but then he pointed out an apparent error in the NAR data - and the subsequent revision corrected that error. As an example, see: The “Curious Case” of Existing Home Sales in the South in April
For June 2018, the consensus is that the NAR will report sales of 5.45 million SAAR. However, housing economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 5.35 million.
Lawler's estimate is a little below the consensus, so I'd take the under for June. Note: The NAR is scheduled to report June Existing Home Sales tomorrow, Monday, July 23rd at 10:00 AM ET.
Over the last eight years, the consensus average miss was 147 thousand, and Lawler's average miss was 68 thousand.
Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Month | Consensus | Lawler | NAR reported1 |
May-10 | 6.20 | 5.83 | 5.66 |
Jun-10 | 5.30 | 5.30 | 5.37 |
Jul-10 | 4.66 | 3.95 | 3.83 |
Aug-10 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.13 |
Sep-10 | 4.30 | 4.50 | 4.53 |
Oct-10 | 4.50 | 4.46 | 4.43 |
Nov-10 | 4.85 | 4.61 | 4.68 |
Dec-10 | 4.90 | 5.13 | 5.28 |
Jan-11 | 5.20 | 5.17 | 5.36 |
Feb-11 | 5.15 | 5.00 | 4.88 |
Mar-11 | 5.00 | 5.08 | 5.10 |
Apr-11 | 5.20 | 5.15 | 5.05 |
May-11 | 4.75 | 4.80 | 4.81 |
Jun-11 | 4.90 | 4.71 | 4.77 |
Jul-11 | 4.92 | 4.69 | 4.67 |
Aug-11 | 4.75 | 4.92 | 5.03 |
Sep-11 | 4.93 | 4.83 | 4.91 |
Oct-11 | 4.80 | 4.86 | 4.97 |
Nov-11 | 5.08 | 4.40 | 4.42 |
Dec-11 | 4.60 | 4.64 | 4.61 |
Jan-12 | 4.69 | 4.66 | 4.57 |
Feb-12 | 4.61 | 4.63 | 4.59 |
Mar-12 | 4.62 | 4.59 | 4.48 |
Apr-12 | 4.66 | 4.53 | 4.62 |
May-12 | 4.57 | 4.66 | 4.55 |
Jun-12 | 4.65 | 4.56 | 4.37 |
Jul-12 | 4.50 | 4.47 | 4.47 |
Aug-12 | 4.55 | 4.87 | 4.82 |
Sep-12 | 4.75 | 4.70 | 4.75 |
Oct-12 | 4.74 | 4.84 | 4.79 |
Nov-12 | 4.90 | 5.10 | 5.04 |
Dec-12 | 5.10 | 4.97 | 4.94 |
Jan-13 | 4.90 | 4.94 | 4.92 |
Feb-13 | 5.01 | 4.87 | 4.98 |
Mar-13 | 5.03 | 4.89 | 4.92 |
Apr-13 | 4.92 | 5.03 | 4.97 |
May-13 | 5.00 | 5.20 | 5.18 |
Jun-13 | 5.27 | 4.99 | 5.08 |
Jul-13 | 5.13 | 5.33 | 5.39 |
Aug-13 | 5.25 | 5.35 | 5.48 |
Sep-13 | 5.30 | 5.26 | 5.29 |
Oct-13 | 5.13 | 5.08 | 5.12 |
Nov-13 | 5.02 | 4.98 | 4.90 |
Dec-13 | 4.90 | 4.96 | 4.87 |
Jan-14 | 4.70 | 4.67 | 4.62 |
Feb-14 | 4.64 | 4.60 | 4.60 |
Mar-14 | 4.56 | 4.64 | 4.59 |
Apr-14 | 4.67 | 4.70 | 4.65 |
May-14 | 4.75 | 4.81 | 4.89 |
Jun-14 | 4.99 | 4.96 | 5.04 |
Jul-14 | 5.00 | 5.09 | 5.15 |
Aug-14 | 5.18 | 5.12 | 5.05 |
Sep-14 | 5.09 | 5.14 | 5.17 |
Oct-14 | 5.15 | 5.28 | 5.26 |
Nov-14 | 5.20 | 4.90 | 4.93 |
Dec-14 | 5.05 | 5.15 | 5.04 |
Jan-15 | 5.00 | 4.90 | 4.82 |
Feb-15 | 4.94 | 4.87 | 4.88 |
Mar-15 | 5.04 | 5.18 | 5.19 |
Apr-15 | 5.22 | 5.20 | 5.04 |
May-15 | 5.25 | 5.29 | 5.35 |
Jun-15 | 5.40 | 5.45 | 5.49 |
Jul-15 | 5.41 | 5.64 | 5.59 |
Aug-15 | 5.50 | 5.54 | 5.31 |
Sep-15 | 5.35 | 5.56 | 5.55 |
Oct-15 | 5.41 | 5.33 | 5.36 |
Nov-15 | 5.32 | 4.97 | 4.76 |
Dec-15 | 5.19 | 5.36 | 5.46 |
Jan-16 | 5.32 | 5.36 | 5.47 |
Feb-16 | 5.30 | 5.20 | 5.08 |
Mar-16 | 5.27 | 5.27 | 5.33 |
Apr-16 | 5.40 | 5.44 | 5.45 |
May-16 | 5.64 | 5.55 | 5.53 |
Jun-16 | 5.48 | 5.62 | 5.57 |
Jul-16 | 5.52 | 5.41 | 5.39 |
Aug-16 | 5.44 | 5.49 | 5.33 |
Sep-16 | 5.35 | 5.55 | 5.47 |
Oct-16 | 5.44 | 5.47 | 5.60 |
Nov-16 | 5.54 | 5.60 | 5.61 |
Dec-16 | 5.54 | 5.55 | 5.49 |
Jan-17 | 5.55 | 5.60 | 5.69 |
Feb-17 | 5.55 | 5.41 | 5.48 |
Mar-17 | 5.61 | 5.74 | 5.71 |
Apr-17 | 5.67 | 5.56 | 5.57 |
May-17 | 5.55 | 5.65 | 5.62 |
Jun-17 | 5.58 | 5.59 | 5.52 |
Jul-17 | 5.57 | 5.38 | 5.44 |
Aug-17 | 5.48 | 5.39 | 5.35 |
Sep-17 | 5.30 | 5.38 | 5.39 |
Oct-17 | 5.30 | 5.60 | 5.48 |
Nov-17 | 5.52 | 5.77 | 5.81 |
Dec-17 | 5.75 | 5.66 | 5.57 |
Jan-18 | 5.65 | 5.48 | 5.38 |
Feb-18 | 5.42 | 5.44 | 5.54 |
Mar-18 | 5.28 | 5.51 | 5.60 |
Apr-18 | 5.60 | 5.48 | 5.46 |
May-18 | 5.56 | 5.47 | 5.43 |
Jun-18 | 5.45 | 5.35 | --- |
1NAR initially reported before revisions. |
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