by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2018 04:20:00 PM

Based on a preliminary estimate from AutoData, light vehicle sales were at a 16.7 million SAAR in July.

Note: All other data from the BEA (the BEA will report this month's sales soon).

That is unchanged year-over-year from July 2017, and down 3% from last month.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for July (red, light vehicle sales of 16.7 million SAAR  from AutoData).

Note that the increase in sales at the end of 2017 was due to buying following the hurricanes.

Sales will probably move sideways or decline in 2018 after setting new sales records in both 2015 and 2016.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

This was below the consensus forecast for July.