by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2018 03:57:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.20 million in September, down 2.6% from August’s preliminary pace and down 3.2% from last September’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % decline, reflecting this September’s lower business-day count compared to last September.

On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data, as well as data from other inventory trackers, suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale in September showed a small (and contra-seasonal) increase over August, and I project that the NAR’s estimate of the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of September will be 1.94 million, up 1.0% from August’s preliminary estimate and up [4.3% from September 2017].

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median US existing single-family home sales price last month was up about 4.3% from last September.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to released September existing home sales on Friday. The consensus is also for sales of 5.30 million SAAR, down from 5.34 million in August.  Take the under.