by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2018 08:37:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September:

Personal income increased $35.7 billion (0.2 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $29.1 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $53.0 billion (0.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in September and Real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

The September PCE price index increased 2.0 percent year-over-year and the September PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also increased 2.0 percent year-over-year.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September 2018 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

The increase in personal income was below expectations, and the increase in PCE was at expectations.

PCE growth was strong in Q3, and inflation is close to the Fed's target.