by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2018 11:35:00 AM
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Key Measures Show Inflation Softened Slightly on YoY Basis in October
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.4% annualized rate) in October. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.7% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for October here. Motor fuel was up 43% annualized in October, but that will reverse in November.
Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.3% (4.0% annualized rate) in October. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% (2.3% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.7%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.2%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.3%. Core PCE is for September and increased 1.96% year-over-year.
On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 2.4% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 2.7% annualized, and core CPI was at 2.3% annualized.
Using these measures, inflation softened slightly on a year-over-year basis in October. Overall, these measures are at or above the Fed's 2% target (Core PCE is slightly below 2%).