by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2018 07:56:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 3.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 9, 2018.

... The Refinance Index decreased 4.3 percent from the previous week reaching its lowest level since December 2000. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier reaching its lowest level since February 2017. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago. ...

“Recent volatility in the financial markets and increasing rates continue to adversely impact mortgage application activity, even as the general economic outlook remains positive,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s AVP of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Both home purchase and mortgage refinance applications decreased over the week, driven largely by declines in conventional applications. Mortgage rates increased over the week for most loan types, with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage increasing to 5.17 percent – the highest level since 2010.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) increased to 5.17 percent from 5.15 percent, with points increasing to 0.55 from 0.51 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Refinance activity will not pick up significantly unless mortgage rates fall 50 bps or more from the recent level.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 3% year-over-year.