FOMC Projections

Statement here.

Powell press conference video here.

On the projections, growth was revised down slightly, and inflation was softer.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP1	2018	2019	2020
Dec 2018	3.0 to 3.1	2.3 to 2.5	1.8 to 2.0
Sep 2018	3.0 to 3.2	2.4 to 2.7	1.8 to 2.1
Jun 2018	2.7 to 3.0	2.2 to 2.6	1.8 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in November. So the unemployment rate projection for 2018 was unchanged.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate2	2018	2019	2020
Dec 2018	3.7	3.5 to 3.7	3.5 to 3.8
Sep 2018	3.7	3.4 to 3.6	3.4 to 3.8
Jun 2018	3.6 to 3.7	3.4 to 3.5	3.4 to 3.7

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of October, PCE inflation was up 2.0% from October 2017.  PCE inflation projections were revised down for 2018, 2019, and 2020.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation1	2018	2019	2020
Dec 2018	1.8 to 1.9	1.8 to 2.1	2.0 to 2.1
Sep 2018	2.0 to 2.1	2.0 to 2.1	2.1 to 2.2
Jun 2018	2.0 to 2.1	2.0 to 2.2	2.1 to 2.2

PCE core inflation was up 1.8% in October year-over-year. Core PCE inflation was revised down slightly for 2018.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core Inflation1	2018	2019	2020
Dec 2018	1.8 to 1.9	2.0 to 2.1	2.0 to 2.1
Sep 2018	1.9 to 2.0	2.0 to 2.1	2.1 to 2.2
Jun 2018	1.9 to 2.0	2.0 to 2.2	2.1 to 2.2