by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2019 12:27:00 PM

A few excerpts from a research note by Goldman Sachs economists David Choi and David Mericle: US Daily: When Will Inflation Rise Above 2%? A View from Our Bottom-Up Model

In its January statement, the FOMC highlighted “muted inflation pressures” as a key reason to be patient in making future adjustments to interest rates. This new language further raises the burden on the inflation data to justify any potential rate hikes later this year.

Our bottom-up core PCE inflation model now projects a rise to 2.1% by end-2019. ... But the bounce above 2% is unlikely to come until the August report, not available until the FOMC’s October meeting. This adds a bit to the case for Q4 as the most likely timing of the next hike.