by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2019 11:17:00 AM
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Key Measures Show Inflation lower in January than in December on a YoY basis
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (3.2% annualized rate) in January. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.3% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for January here. Motor fuel was down 49% annualized in January.
Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers was unchanged (-0.2% annualized rate) in January. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% (2.9% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.7%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.2%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.2%. Core PCE is for November and increased 1.9% year-over-year (note: December PCE has not been released yet due to government shutdown).
On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 3.2% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 2.3% annualized, and core CPI was at 2.9% annualized.
Using these measures, inflation was lower in January than in December on a year-over-year basis. Overall, these measures are at or above the Fed's 2% target (Core PCE is below 2%).