by Calculated Risk on 2/19/2019 03:15:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.92 million in January, down 1.0% from December’s preliminary pace and down 8.6% from last January’s seasonally adjusted pace.

On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data, as well as data from other inventory trackers, suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of January was up 6.6% from last January.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median US existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 3.0% from last January.

Note: In the upcoming release the NAR will incorporate updated seasonal adjustment factors (as it does every year), which will alter monthly seasonally adjusted sales for the past few years.

CR Note: Existing home sales for January are scheduled to be released on Thursday, Feb 21st. The consensus is for sales of 5.05 million SAAR.