by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2019 05:21:00 PM

From JD Power: Sales Slow, Discounts Rise—But Average Prices Break Records

New-vehicle retail sales in May are expected to fall from a year ago, according to a forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. Retail sales are projected to reach 1,226,800 units, a 3.1% decrease compared with May 2018. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for retail sales is expected to be 13.5 million units, down nearly 200,000 from a year ago.

May will be the fifth consecutive month in 2019 to experience a sales decline, with calendar year-to-date sales through May expected to be down 5.2% compared with the same period in 2018.

Total sales in May are projected to reach 1,558,800 units, a 2.1% decrease compared with May 2018. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total sales is expected to be 17.0 million units, down 200,000 from a year ago.
…
“May is one of the highest volume months of the year and its performance typically indicates how the year will play out. The expected sales decline in May, coupled with weak sales year-to-date has left the industry with rising inventories of unsold vehicles. Manufacturers are responding with larger discounts to take advantage of the Memorial Day weekend which is one of the busiest car-buying periods of the year.”
emphasis added

This forecast is for sales to be up from April, but down from 17.2 million SAAR in May 2018.