Monday, May 06, 2019

When will I make another "Big" economic call?

A short note: Over the years, I've made several significant economic calls. For example, I predicted a recession in 2007, a recovery in 2009 (link is first in a series of posts), the top for housing prices in early 2006 and the bottom for housing prices in early 2012. I do not have a crystal ball, and I've missed some calls - but by watching the data closely, I've been pretty lucky overall.

Sometimes people ask me when I'll make another call.  I don't know; I'm very data dependent!

But I was wondering if these count?  Back in December 2015, I wrote The Endless Parade of Recession Calls. I concluded:
Looking at the economic data, the odds of a recession in 2016 are very low (extremely unlikely in my view). Someday I'll make another recession call, but I'm not even on recession watch now.
That was correct.  And earlier this year I wrote an update to that post.
My view now: a recession in 2019 is very unlikely. I'm still not on recession watch!
So far that looks correct too.

Someday I'll make another "Big" call, but I don't know when.
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1 comment:

  1. Psyclepump@gmail.com8:34 AM

    Bill, the yield curve (10yr minus 90 day) inverted in late March. This has a stellar record and leads recessions by 5 to 16 months, whereas the trough in unemployment rate increasing by 0.4% leads by 1 to 16 months. What are the factors that seem to be swamping out this tool, and have those swamping out effects also been present when the curve has inverted in the past?

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