by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2019 02:04:00 PM

The BEA released their estimate of May vehicle sales this morning. The BEA estimated sales of 17.31 million SAAR in May 2019 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 5.9% from the April sales rate, and up slightly from May 2018.

Sales in 2019 are averaging 16.8 million (average of seasonally adjusted rate), down 1.9% compared to the same period in 2018.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for May (red).

This was below the consensus forecast for April.

A small decline in sales to date this year isn't a concern - I think sales will move mostly sideways at near record levels.

This means the economic boost from increasing auto sales is over (from the bottom in 2009, auto sales boosted growth every year through 2016).

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 17.31 million SAAR.