by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2019 08:10:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 26.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 7, 2019. The results for the week ending May 31, 2019 included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.

... The Refinance Index increased 47 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 20 percent compared with the previous week and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
“Mortgage rates for all loan types fell by a sizeable margin for the second straight week, pulled down by trade tensions with China and Mexico, the financial markets reacting to more bearish communication from several Fed officials, and weaker than expected hiring in May,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Despite the less positive outlook, both purchase and refinance applications surged, driven mainly by these lower rates. The refinance index jumped 47 percent to its highest level since 2016.”

Added Kan, “With the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at its lowest level since September 2017, purchase activity was more than 10 percent higher than a year ago. Demand is still relatively strong, but there is likely some restraint from prospective buyers, driven by some economic uncertainty. Furthermore, housing supply is still very tight for first-time buyers.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) decreased to 4.12 percent from 4.23 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Mortgage rates have declined from close to 5% late last year to under 4% recently.

Just about anyone who bought or refinanced over the last year or so can refinance now.   But it would take another significant decline in rates for a further large increase in refinance activity.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 10% year-over-year.