by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2019 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the June employment report.

Other key reports include the June ISM Manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys, June Vehicle Sales and the Trade Deficit for May.

----- Monday, July 1st -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 51.2, down from 52.1 in May.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The employment index was at 53.7% in May, and the new orders index was at 52.7%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, July 2nd -----
All day: Light vehicle sales for June from the BEA. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.0 million SAAR in June, down from 17.3 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

----- Wednesday, July 3rd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in June, up from 27,000 added in May.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, down from 227 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $53.2 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $50.8 Billion the previous month.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for June.   The consensus is for a reading of 55.9, down from 56.9.

----- Thursday, July 4th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day.

----- Friday, July 5th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for June.   The consensus is for 165,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%.

There were 75,000 jobs added in May, and the unemployment rate was at 3.6%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In May, the year-over-year change was 2.350 million jobs.