by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2019 04:20:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was unchanged at 0.70% in June, from 0.70% in May. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.97% in June 2018.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". 

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

This equals last month as the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since July 2007.

Click on graph for larger image

By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (3% of portfolio), 2.61% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (4% of portfolio), 4.45% are seriously delinquent, For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (93% of portfolio), only 0.32% are seriously delinquent. So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.

The increase in the delinquency rate in late 2017 was due to the hurricanes - there were no worries about the overall market.

I expect the serious delinquency rate will probably decline to 0.4 to 0.6 percent or so to a cycle bottom.

Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.