by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2019 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 19, 2019.

... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 81 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
“Mortgage applications were down last week, even as rates moved lower across the board, with the 30-year fixed rate at 4.08 percent. Refinance activity was lower, but we did see government refinance applications increase, driven solely by a 12 percent rise in FHA applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Mortgage rates right now are comparable to the average rate of 4.10 percent for June, but refinances last week were 7 percent lower than last month. This is an indication that as we see rates lower for longer, borrowers need more of a drop in rates to consider refinancing.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications decreased for the second straight week and have been somewhat volatile lately, but were still 6 percent higher than a year ago.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) decreased to 4.08 percent from 4.12 percent, with points decreasing to 0.33 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Mortgage rates have declined from close to 5% late last year to around 4% now.

Just about anyone who bought or refinanced over the last year or so can refinance now.   But it would take another significant decline in rates for a further large increase in refinance activity.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 6% year-over-year.